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2026 Oil Shock Scenarios

How shifting oil prices could reshape global growth, inflation, and central-bank policy

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X-axisBrent oil
Y-axisGlobal GDP growth
Bubble sizePeak inflation
1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%$60$80$100$120$140$160$180Global GDP growthBrent oil priceBrent holds at $652.8% inflationBrent stays near $954.2% inflationBrent rises toward $1304.9% inflationBrent spikes toward $1705.6% inflation

Brent stays near $95. Global growth slows to 2.9%, inflation sticks near 4.2%, and central banks pause before cutting.

@predictheory
Date2026 scenario setSelectedBrent stays near $95: growth 2.9%, inflation 4.2%. Pause, then cuts. Low-intensity conflict slows growth and keeps inflation sticky.Range$65 to $170